Estimating the Effect of the Canadian Government’s 2006–2007 Greenhouse Gas Policies

Mounting public concern about climate change has prompted the Canadian government to respond with a major policy effort to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since early 2006, the Conservative government has launched a series of initiatives under its “ecoACTION” banner, culminating in the release in April 2007 of its “regulatory framework for air emissions,” which is currently under consultative review. The government maintains that the combined effect of its policies will reduce Canadian GHG emissions to a target 20 percent below today’s levels by 2020. The government also says that this initiative moves Canada toward its emission target for 2050 — a 65 percent reduction from current levels. If achieved, this four-decade target represents a profound transformation of our energyeconomy system. While these initiatives and commitments are undoubtedly taken in earnest, Canadian governments have an unfortunate record on GHG targets and policies. Since 1988, Canadian governments have, on several occasions, set targets for reduced GHG emissions and implemented policy initiatives to achieve those targets. However, five major policy initiatives have failed to stem the steady growth of Canadian GHG emissions, as shown in Figure 1. Emissions actually rose faster during the period of policy initiatives, from 1990 to 2006, than during the previous decade, from 1980 to 1990, even though this earlier period had no GHG reduction policies.